The recent Bitcoin market downturn took many in the crypto community by surprise, as some investors anticipated price rebounds at various stages of the correction. However, a portion of the market foresaw this corrective phase using on-chain data as a basis for their predictions.
One such group consists of on-chain data analysts who accurately predicted the emergence of the bear market due to a decline in apparent demand. Building on this model, a prominent market researcher has suggested a potential catalyst for the recovery of Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin ETFs Begin 2026 With $1.8 Billion in Outflows
In a recent post on the social media platform X, anonymous analyst Darkfost shared that spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) could play a significant role in the turnaround of the crypto market. Market data indicates that demand for crypto through exchange-traded funds has been weak in 2026.
This cautious approach from investors and a “contraction in liquidity” have had a notable impact on the market, with prices continuously dropping to new lows. Darkfost emphasized that the early months of 2026 have resembled a period of risk reduction in the spot Bitcoin ETF sector, primarily driven by substantial capital outflows and strong speculative momentum.
Darkfost stated in the X post:
Market participants seem to be reassessing their risk exposure in an uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.
Notably, recent on-chain data supports investors’ growing disinterest in the Bitcoin ETF market. According to Darkfost, 2026 has begun with approximately $1.8 billion in net outflows, a stark contrast to the positive levels seen in 2024 and early 2025.
Source: @Darkfost_Coc on X
Previous periods were characterized by sustained capital inflows and a significant increase in market liquidity. However, 2025 concluded on a negative note, with ETF inflows decreasing from $27 billion to around $20 billion by the end of the year.
Therefore, the current decline in demand appears to be gradual rather than sudden. This weakening demand has left the Bitcoin market exposed and susceptible to selling pressure and short-term volatility.
Darkfost concluded that a continuous influx of Bitcoin ETF investments could be a crucial factor in restoring a robust market structure and boosting investor confidence. However, recent data has not been promising, as US-based BTC exchange-traded funds experienced net outflows of approximately $360 million in the past week.
Bitcoin Price Overview
At present, BTC is priced around $70,600, indicating an almost 2% increase in the last 24 hours.
The price of BTC surpasses $70,000 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
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