Portugal orders Polymarket to shut down over election betting surge

Following a surge in betting activity related to Portugal’s presidential election, the country’s gambling regulator has issued an order for blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket to cease operations within 48 hours.

Reports indicate that bets placed on the election outcome surpassed 103 million euros, prompting the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeição de Jogos (SRIJ) to intervene due to Polymarket’s lack of a license to operate in Portugal.

This move underscores the clash between prediction markets and national gambling laws, particularly when significant capital flows into platforms during political events.

Navigating Local Laws

Polymarket offers users the ability to bet on various real-world events, including politics, sports, and developments. However, betting on political outcomes is prohibited in Portugal under the 2015 online gambling legislation.

The SRIJ emphasized that Polymarket lacks authorization to facilitate betting services in Portugal and is prohibited from offering political markets, whether domestic or international.

Enforcement Deadline

The regulator’s decision came in response to the election-related surge in betting activity, leading to a 48-hour ultimatum for Polymarket to exit the country.

While the platform remains accessible for now, ISPs may be instructed to block access soon, aligning with the regulator’s directives.

Other prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Myriad also operate in Portugal, with authorities focusing primarily on Polymarket’s licensing status and political betting offerings.

Increased Scrutiny

The significant volume of bets tied to the election has highlighted the concentration of liquidity in political markets and attracted regulatory attention swiftly.

Reports of bets exceeding 103 million euros underscore the scale of activity on Polymarket related to Portugal’s presidential election.

Global Restrictions

Despite being founded in 2020, Polymarket has faced limitations in over 30 countries, including Belgium, Russia, and Ukraine, due to varying regulatory stances.

While some countries have blacklisted the platform, others like France have restricted access, allowing only “view-only” mode for local users.

Portugal’s recent enforcement action adds to the list of countries scrutinizing prediction markets, signaling potential legal challenges as platforms gain traction during election periods.