The Latest Study on AI Impact on Firms: Insights and Expectations
A recent comprehensive international study on the impact of AI at the firm level has unveiled some surprising findings. With input from nearly 6,000 verified executives across four countries, the study indicates that AI has brought about modest changes in productivity and employment over the past three years. Contrary to initial expectations, these changes reflect the early stages of AI deployment rather than a failure of the technology.
Published by the National Bureau of Economic Research and conducted by teams from esteemed institutions like the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Bank of England, the Deutsche Bundesbank, and Macquarie University, the study found that a significant majority of firms (over 90%) reported no significant changes in headcount due to AI adoption in the past three years. This aligns with the historical evolution of general-purpose technologies, where incremental rather than transformative effects are observed initially.
The study highlighted that AI adoption is widespread, with approximately 69% of firms already utilizing some form of AI technology. The most popular AI applications include LLM-based text generation, data processing through machine learning, and visual content creation. In the UK specifically, firm-level adoption of AI has increased from 61% to 71% in 2025. AI tools have become integrated into daily workflows, and although the measured impact at the firm level may lag behind adoption, the overall trend is positive.
The Anticipated Acceleration of AI Impact
Executives are optimistic about the future impact of AI, with expectations of a 1.4% increase in productivity and a 0.8% rise in output over the next three years. US executives foresee a productivity gain of 2.25%, while UK firms expect a 1.86% increase. These anticipated gains are significant, especially in economies grappling with stagnant productivity growth. Incremental improvements across sectors can lead to substantial national outputs.
Regarding employment, executives predict a modest 0.7% reduction in headcount across the four countries in the same period. In the UK, a majority of this adjustment is expected to occur through slower hiring rather than mass layoffs, indicating a gradual shift in roles rather than abrupt job losses. It’s important to note that job creation in new roles related to AI, such as data governance, model oversight, and AI-enabled service development, may offset some of the reductions.
Comparing Expectations: Executives vs. Workers
The study also compared the expectations of executives with those of workers. While employees anticipate a 0.5% increase in employment at their firms due to AI, executives project a 1.2% reduction. Similarly, employees expect a productivity gain of 0.92%, lower than the executive forecast of 2.25%. This divergence reflects the different perspectives of executives focusing on cost structures and competition, while employees experience AI’s impact at the task level.
The study emphasizes that AI systems are often deployed to augment rather than replace human workers, particularly in knowledge-intensive roles. Evidence from trials indicates that productivity gains are concentrated among less experienced staff, with quality improvements accompanying enhanced output. Clear communication and training facilitate smooth AI adoption with minimal resistance.
Significance of AI Impact Data
It’s crucial to consider the nuances of survey design when interpreting AI impact statistics. Variations in survey results from different sources highlight the importance of sampling methods and question framing. The study, which primarily involved phone-verified CEOs and CFOs from the UK and Germany, was cross-checked against macroeconomic data from national statistics agencies.
Executives anticipate a significant inflection point in AI impact over the next three years as deployments mature and integration improves. The key question is not whether AI will affect productivity and employment, but rather how quickly organizations can leverage AI for tangible economic benefits.
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