Bitcoin has faced another period of decline in the past week, as the leading cryptocurrency struggles to regain important technical levels. Recent market analysis indicates that while price movements are volatile, Bitcoin is mostly trading within the range of $60,000 to $70,000.
Bitcoin’s $60,000 Support: Long-Term Holders Remain Firm
A recent report by analyst GugaOnChain highlights the current market dynamics of Bitcoin, describing a clash between long-term belief and short-term pressure. Data from on-chain platforms suggests that Bitcoin is in a mature bear market, aligning with forecasts from December 2025.
GugaOnChain observes that long-term holders are the key support at the $60,000 level. Specifically, the 12-18-month UTXO cohort has increased from 9.67% to 11.09%, indicating a growing amount of Bitcoin being held for the long term.
This indicates a strengthening conviction among holders who acquired Bitcoin over a year ago and are choosing to hold despite market challenges. However, historical trends suggest that bear market bottoms usually see this cohort reach higher levels (30-44%), implying that while there is support forming, a definitive bottom may not have been reached yet.
Bitcoin’s Future Depends on US Institutional Involvement
A low Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) reading of 0.14 further supports the idea that older coins are not being moved. Long-term holders are not selling in panic, acting as a liquidity anchor that prevents Bitcoin from dropping below $60,000.
On the resistance side near $70,000, active whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC are seen as the main sellers. Their selling counters the resilience of long-term holders and limits upward momentum. The negative Coinbase Premium Index (-0.04) indicates weak US institutional demand and a cautious macro environment. Without significant institutional inflows, a sustained breakout is unlikely.
Moreover, short-term holders are capitulating, as reflected in an MVRV-STH ratio of 0.74, indicating many are selling at a loss and exiting positions. This phase shows Bitcoin is undergoing a purification process. While long-term value is emerging, sustained growth hinges on US institutional demand returning and a shift in macro conditions.
As of the latest update, BTC is trading around $63,823, marking a 5.75% increase in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
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