Bitcoin has weathered various storms: significant price drops, regulatory challenges, exchange failures, and prolonged bear markets. Throughout all these trials, one streak has remained intact: Bitcoin has never ended January, February, and March in the red within the same year. This historical trend is now in jeopardy as March 2026 nears its close.
The Data That Paints the Picture
Bitcoin is on the verge of recording three consecutive monthly losses to start a year, a feat never before seen in its trading history. The Coinglass monthly returns heatmap illustrates this concerning pattern. January 2026 ended with a 10.17% decrease, followed by a 14.94% drop in February, marking the first back-to-back red February months after a 17.39% loss in 2025.
March is currently at risk of closing in negative territory, with Bitcoin trading around $67,750 compared to the month’s opening price of $66,970. This translates to a month-to-date return of approximately 0.31%, with one trading day left in March.
Bitcoin Monthly Returns (%). Source: Coinglass
Looking back at historical data, no year in Bitcoin’s price history (2013 to 2026) has experienced three consecutive monthly losses to kick off the year. While individual months have seen significant declines in the past, such as January 2015 (-33.05%) and February 2014 (-31.03%), there was always a recovery month. However, 2026 has yet to show any signs of such a turnaround.
Potential Six-Month Losing Streak
Since reaching its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has faced a string of monthly losses. February 2025 saw five consecutive red closes, a rare occurrence in Bitcoin’s history. This streak could extend to six months if March continues the trend.
The current performance reflects a combination of mounting pressures over the past six months. Investor sentiment towards Bitcoin has plummeted to levels not seen since the 2022 bear market.
As of now, Bitcoin’s Q1 2026 performance stands at -22.6%. This represents the weakest first quarter since 2018 when Bitcoin suffered a 50.7% decline between January and March. While the 2018 first-quarter losses were more severe in absolute terms, there was a slight recovery in February.
At present, Bitcoin is priced at $67,750 with one day remaining in March, marking an unexpected turn of events for many investors.
Featured image generated using Dall.E, chart sourced from Tradingview.com
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