Bitcoin has stabilized around the $70,000 mark following a significant sell-off, leading to uncertainty among investors about its next move. The current on-chain data, ETF flows, and market structure signals are sending mixed signals, prompting the question of whether Bitcoin is gearing up for a rally or bracing for further losses.
One key indicator pointing towards elevated selling pressure is the growth rate difference between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap. The negative territory of this indicator historically indicates heavier selling pressure, suggesting that coins are being redistributed at lower prices rather than driven higher by fresh demand. This scenario has historically made sustained price increases challenging, as rallies were often met with distribution rather than continued upward movement.
On the other hand, data on on-chain accumulation indicates that whales are aggressively buying Bitcoin. Inflows to long-term accumulation addresses surged during the recent dip, marking the largest single-day inflow of this cycle. While this accumulation does not guarantee an immediate price rally, it does suggest that large holders are absorbing supply rather than distributing it, creating a floor effect that limits downside potential even in a fragile sentiment market.
Bitcoin is currently trading above its realized price, which sits around the mid-$50,000 range. This keeps the broader network in profit and reduces the risk of widespread capitulation, as deep and sustained bear markets typically occur when prices fall below realized levels for extended periods.
Despite heavy outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs during the crash, flows have since stabilized, indicating that the worst of the forced selling may have passed. However, ETF demand has not yet reached levels that could trigger a breakout.
Overall, the data suggests that Bitcoin is in a market environment characterized by both accumulation and distribution. While whale buying and ETF stabilization support the downside, persistent selling pressure limits upside potential. In the short term, Bitcoin is more likely to trade within a range around $70,000 rather than experience a significant price increase or decrease.
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