Solana (SOL) is currently priced just above $82, showing a four-day recovery trend. Funding rates for SOL futures have increased, but a simultaneous decrease in Open Interest indicates a divided market sentiment. The key resistance level to monitor from a technical standpoint is the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $88.80.
Derivatives Point to Optimism, but Participation Declines
Market data suggests a rise in bullish sentiment among traders, despite an overall decrease in participation in SOL futures contracts. As per CoinGlass, the OI-weighted funding rate has risen to 0.0067% from 0.0042% on Sunday, indicating that long-position traders are willing to pay a premium, a sign of increasing confidence in potential upward movement.
However, this optimism is not entirely supported by market activity. Open Interest in SOL futures has decreased from $5.07 billion to $4.97 billion, signaling a reduction in total capital invested in the market. This divergence—rising funding rates alongside falling Open Interest—suggests a mixed sentiment, with bullish inclination but limited conviction.
Institutional Demand Shows Weakness
Institutional demand for Solana remains weak. Data from Sosovalue indicates that SOL-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced net weekly outflows of $5.24 million, marking the second consecutive week of withdrawals. This ongoing trend could potentially exert downward pressure on SOL’s spot price in the short term.
Can Solana Extend Its Recovery to $93?
The SOL/USD 4-hour chart displays a bullish trend, with the coin’s value increasing by almost 4% in the past 24 hours. Currently, SOL is trading at $82.50 per coin.
The short-term outlook remains mixed as SOL remains below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, maintaining a broader corrective structure.
Momentum indicators have turned bullish, indicating potential further gains in the near future. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is above the signal line, signaling continuous buying pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60, above the neutral 50, indicating a growing bullish momentum.
If the upward momentum continues, Solana could encounter immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA around $88.81, which may impede price rebounds and pave the way for a stronger move towards $98.02, close to the 100-day EMA at $102.18.
However, if sellers regain control, the support range between $75.63 and $77.60 could act as a bounce-back zone. Continued selling pressure might shift focus to the February 6 low at $67.50.
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