Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture, with a notable signal emerging that has historically signaled pivotal moments in the market’s trajectory.
The cryptocurrency has reached a key point in the Gaussian weekly uptrend, a signal that has consistently appeared at significant stages of previous market cycles. According to an analyst, this signal could indicate both a final decline to the bottom and a potential entry point before the next bullish phase.
The Significance of the Gaussian Channel Flip
A recent technical analysis highlighted by ChartNerd reveals that Bitcoin has transitioned from a green Gaussian weekly uptrend to a bearish red channel. This shift typically marks the beginning of the final phase of a bear market in Bitcoin’s history.
The chart presented below illustrates a pattern seen across various market cycles, including the 2014/2015 cycle, the 2018/2019 bottom, and the 2022 cycle low. The current trend flip mirrors these past transitions, suggesting that Bitcoin is once again entering a bearish phase.
ChartNerd points out that this signal has consistently preceded the last major downward movement in previous bear markets. While it may not signify an extended collapse, it indicates that Bitcoin is approaching a potential bottom.
Bitcoin Trend Flip. Source: @ChartNerdTA On X
Navigating Towards the Bottom
Bitcoin’s current price reflects a 47% decline from its peak value of $126,080 in October 2025. While further downside is possible, the majority of the price correction has likely occurred. ChartNerd projects the final low to occur sometime in Q2 or Q3 2026, with a target range between $40,000 and $50,000.
In a separate analysis, ChartNerd emphasizes that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle framework remains intact despite recent supercycle speculations, indicating that the current market adheres to this established structure.
Bitcoin Gaussian Channel. Source: @ChartNerdTA On X
The Gaussian Channel analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s price is heading towards testing the red baseline at $66,895 on a 27-day timeframe, with the lower red support at $44,463. Previous cycles have seen brief dips to or below this support line, suggesting that Bitcoin may experience further downside before a potential reversal.
Image source: Unsplash, chart source: TradingView
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